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HFblogNews:

Date : 2nd November 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd November 2018.[/B][/font][/color]

FX News Today
[/color]Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 3.8 bp at 3.168%, 10-year JGB yields jumped 1.2 bp to 0.121% as Asian shares rallied on trade hopes. Bloomberg reported that Trump is seeking to reach a trade deal with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina later this month and has asked officials to begin drafting potential terms, with other reports suggesting that intellectual property rights are a key sticking point. Apple warned that sales for the crucial holiday quarter may miss expectations, but this was shrugged off amid hopes of a trade deal, which together with yesterday’s pledge from Chinese officials to support demand saw Topix and Nikkei gaining 1.64% and 2.56% respectively. The Hang Seng outperformed and was up 3.66% as of 6:08 GMT. The CSI also rose 3% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp gained 2.20% and 2.86%. US stock futures are also higher and oil prices reached a high of USD 63.95 per barrel, before falling back to now USD 63.81.FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have traded generally weaker against most other currencies amid a backdrop of strongly-rebounding global stock markets. An ease between the US and China on trade, along with overall decent corporate earnings, mostly firm US data this week, and a plethora of stock-boosting measures by Beijing, have collectively elicited a rebound in stock markets. USDJPY has recouped to the 113.00 area, though Yen crosses have generally rallied by bigger magnitudes. The biggest percentage gainer has been AUDJPY, which has gained over 0.7% in what is now its sixth consecutive up day. EURUSD has rallied a third consecutive up day, posting a 9-day high of 1.1440 so far. The AUDUSD pegged a 5-week high at 0.7250, and USDCAD descended to an 8-day low at 1.3053, despite another sharp leg low in oil prices yesterday, which sent WTI benchmark prices to 7-month lows near $63.00.
Main Macro Events Today[/size]
[/color]* Euro Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – Eurozone PMI is expected to remain unchanged.* UK Construction PMI – Expectations – The October Construction PMI is expected to slip slightly by 52.00 after the 52.1 expansion seen in September.* Canadian Employment Change and Trade Balance – Expectations – The employment should post a 15.0k gain in October jobs,  following the 63.3k rise in September. The pace of wage growth is expected to slow further. The trade surplus is anticipated to narrow slightly to C$0.4 bln in September from C$0.5 bln in August.* US Non-Farm Payrolls  – Expectations – The October US employment expect to see a 194k headline for the month with a 195k private employment figure and unemployment holding steady at 3.7% for a second month. No disruption is expected from the landfalls of hurricanes Michael and Florence but the timing of these two events means that the impact on October payrolls will likely be offsetting.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.[/size]
[/color]Andria PichidiMarket AnalystHotForex[/B][/font][/color]Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews:

Date : 10th December 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th December 2018.


Main Macro Events This Week


Subpar headline jobs and earnings numbers have not altered expectations for a 25 bp increase in the funds rate band, however, at the upcoming December 18-19 FOMC meeting another tightening is forecast. Also on both the Fed and ECB radar screens are two chronic issues that have plagued Europe and added to market volatility – Brexit and Italy. The UK parliament votes on the May Brexit plan on December 10, while EU leaders hold a summit on December 13-14 and could decide whether to accept any alterations to the already agreed upon deal.


United States: The week ahead in the US will feature data on consumption and inflation, alongside readings on industrial production and business inventories. The economic calendar resumes with an update on JOLTS job openings (Monday), followed by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday). Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November (Tuesday), and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October. MBA mortgage market data is on hand (Wednesday), along with a likely flat reading for headline CPI in November, after a 0.3% gain in October, while core prices should rise 0.2%, after a similar gain in October. EIA energy inventory data and the Treasury budget are due too (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8 (Thursday), after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1. November retail sales are seen rising just 0.1% (Friday).


Canada: A thin calendar in Canada this week, however, will not provide much in the way of key data. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to edge lower to 200.0k in November from 205.9k in October. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is expected to rise to 86.0% in Q3 from 85.5% in Q2. The capacity use report is unlikely to make much of a splash given that BoC looks a variety of indicators of capacity use and will evaluate its estimate of the degree of slack in the economy given Statistics Canada’s revision to the GDP trajectory. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen holding steady, while the Teranet/National Housing Price Index for November is due Wednesday.


Europe: With all eyes on the political stage this week, data releases are likely to take a back seat, even if the calendar includes key leading indicators. The last German ZEW Investor Confidence reading for the year (Tuesday) is expected to come in a little changed at -24.0 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, which in the light of the sharp decline in stock markets over the past weeks is hardly a surprise. The preliminary Eurozone Composite Markit PMI is seen rising to 53.0 from 52.7 in the previous month. The German reading (Thursday) to be confirmed at 2.2% y/y. This is in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability, but with core inflation still considerably lower. Meanwhile Eurozone October industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m after the correction of -0.3% m/m in September. Again, little more than a stabilization, with uncertainty over the outlook weighing on confidence, even if companies continue to hold a large number of unfilled orders and the labour market is looking increasingly tight in key countries such as Germany.


UK: It’s Brexit-time this week. The parliamentary vote on the government’s Brexit deal is Tuesday. As of late last week, it continued to look highly likely that the deal will be voted down, though there is scope for a surprise, should Eurosceptic MPs decide that this is the best they’re going to get. If the deal is rejected, it would immediately create scope for multitude scenarios in the coming weeks depending on how big the defeat is.


Japan: The December MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is penciled in at 4.0 from 6.5 previously. October machinery orders (Wednesday) are expected to have rebounded 9.0% m/m from the record 18.3% decline in September. That drop was much worse than expected, even when taking into account the various natural disasters. November PPI (Wednesday) should cool to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% amid the drop in oil prices. The October tertiary index (Wednesday) is forecast rising 0.5% m/m as activity in the service sector improves, following the -1.1% September decline. The December Tankan index (Friday) is estimated dipping to 17 from 19 for large manufacturers, and 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers as some optimism slides amid ongoing trade and growth worries. October revised industrial production is also due Friday.


China: The November industrial production (Friday) is forecast slowing slightly to 5.8% y/y from 5.9%, while November retail sales (Friday) is penciled in at 8.5% y/y from 8.6%, though risk is to the upside after record “Singles Day” sales.


Australia: The Q3 housing prices index (Tuesday) is seen falling 2.0% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% contraction in Q2. RBA Head of Domestic Markets Department Kohler speaks at the 31st Australasian Finance and Banking conference in Sydney (Thursday).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews:

Date : 12th December 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2018.





FX News Today


*USDJPY has posted a nine-day high of 113.51, in what is a second consecutive day of gains. AUDJPY has concurrently printed a six-day high, while EURJPY and other Yen crosses have seen intraday strength. A revival in risk appetite in global markets has seen the some of the Yen’s safe haven premium unwind.
*10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 bp at 2.89% while 10-year JGB yields gained 0.8 bp and are at 0.045%, as stock markets rallied across Asia.


*Topix and Nikkei rallied 1.99% and 2.15% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 1.72%, Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp managed gains of 0.41% and 0.35% respectively and the ASX rose 1.39%.


*Markets in India, hit by the shock resignation of the central bank president yesterday, recovered after an ally of PM Narenda Modi took over.


*US stock futures are also broadly higher, led by a 0.9% rise in the NASDAQ futures and European stock futures are also moving up. Oil prices are trading at USD 52.32.


*News that Canada granted bail to Huawei’s CFO, arrested for extradition to the US, helped to ease tension outside of China.


*Trump sparked a risk-on turn after saying in an interview with Reuters that talks were ensuing with Beijing by phone, and that he would not raise tariffs on Chinese imports until he was sure about a deal.


*He also said that he could intervene in the case of the detained Huawei CFO if it would benefit US national security or help secure a trade deal with China and was ready to meet with President Xi Jinping. After signals that China may cut tariffs on auto imports, more positive signs are recorded on global trade tensions.


*Trump also added that it would be “foolish” for the Fed to hike rates at its policy meeting next week.


Charts of the Day





Main Macro Events Today


* Euro Area Industrial Production – Industrial Production in the Euro Area is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October compared to -0.3% in September.


* US Inflation Rate – The US CPI inflation rate is expected to have stood at 2.2% y/y in November (both Core and Overall Indices), despite signs of a mild deceleration in growth, as per the NFP numbers.


* Teresa May scheduled to go to Ireland, possibility of no confidence vote as early as today.


* Junker and Italy’s Conte are to meet about the Italian budget.


Support and Resistance Levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews:

Date : 13th December 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2018.





FX News Today


*The stock rally continued during the Asian session – Nikkei gained 0.99%.


*Chinese markets outperformed as markets are growing more confident about the future of US-Sino trade relations amid reports of the first major soya bean purchases from China in a while.


*Also there are signs that Chinese authorities may scale back its push for high-tech industrial development, which could be the first step towards honouring US demands for stronger protection of US intellectual property rights.


*UK PM May survived the leadership battle although that doesn’t mean of course that she will be able to ratify her Brexit deal.


*GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed – PM May heads to Brussels to try and get more concessions that would help her get the hated Withdrawal Pact past lawmakers.


*WTI crude settled in lower $51.0s after ebbing from upper $52.0s yesterday.


*USDJPY has remained buoyant amid backdrop of reviving risk appetite.


*EURUSD has been oscillating in mid-to-upper 1.1300s.


Charts of the Day





Main Macro Events Today


* SNB Rate Desicion and Conference – The central bank is expected to leave policy unchanged and to repeat that the situation remains fragile as the currency remains “highly valued”. SNB continues to tread carefully amid heightened uncertainty, geopolitical risks and protectionist threats.


* ECB Rate Desicion and Conference – ECB is set confirm the future of QE and the re-investment schedule amid ongoing market turbulence and mounting political risk in Europe. ECB is expected to hold out for phase-out of QE by the end of the year, as planned.


* US Unemployment Claims – Expectation – Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8, after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1.


Support and Resistance Levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


[size=78%][/size]
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFblogNews:

Date : 17th December 2018.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th December 2018.





The Economic week ahead


Central bank meetings are the highlight, and include those of FOMC, BoE, BoJ, Bank Indonesia, Bank of Thailand, and Taiwan. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to play Santa Claus by delivering a 25 bp rate hike, wrapped in a dovish spin. Geopolitics remain important risk factors amid signs that tariff worries, Treasury curve inversions, China’s deceleration, Brexit uncertainties, Italy’s budget battles, and French riots are exacerbating a global slowing.


United States: The US calendar is dominated by FOMC meeting (Tuesday,Wednesday). Data is light and won’t factor materially into FOMC’s stance. FOMC is universally expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike to increase the target band to 2.25% to 2.50%. Along with FOMC, there is also risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of the week. There won’t be any significant or meaningful impact on the economy from a temporary shutdown, but it could add to market nervousness and worries about the effects of reduced stimulus next year.


There are only a few tier one economic numbers this week and none will impact the FOMC decision. November personal income (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3%. The December Empire State index (Monday) is expected to dip from 23.3 to 21.0. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is seen rising to 19.0 in December from 12.9 in November.  Housing data are on tap, and all the November reports face downside risk from adverse weather and the California fires, but upside risk as prior disaster distortions are unwound. November durable goods orders (Friday) should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth (Friday) is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.


Canada: It is a busy calendar and features several top-tier reports. Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September. The CPI (Wednesday) is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. GDP (Friday) is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September. BoC’s winter Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is expected to reveal a still upbeat outlook, although some caution may seep in given the daily swings in sentiment on the global trade outlook.


Europe: This week’s round of data releases should on the whole back the cautious stance of the central bank. The December German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading in particular under pressure. The manufacturing sector looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany, where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.


Eurozone consumer confidence and German GfK consumer confidence (both Friday), are also likely to show the strain of negative headlines and dissatisfaction with government policies, despite ongoing improvement on labour markets and the forecasts for lower readings. The final reading of Eurozone CPI (Monday) is expected to confirm the core rate at just 1.0% y/y. The headline rate remains much higher at 2.0%, but remains impacted by base effects from energy prices, which are also underpinning very strong rates in German producer prices (Wednesday) and import price (Friday). The busy calendar also includes Eurozone trade and current account data as well as French consumption numbers and the final reading of French Q3 GDP. There also is ECB speak from Hansson (Wednesday).


UK: It’s “crystal clear” — in the words of European Commission President Juncker on Friday — that there won’t be any renegotiation by the EU, other than a clarification of the deal on offer. This suggests that the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU is headed for eventual failure in the UK Parliament. The parliamentary vote will be January; date undecided, but before the legislated deadline of January 21.


The calendar this week is busy and includes BoE’s December Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday). However, this should prove to be a non-event for markets as no changes are all but certain. Data releases will be of limited interest given the now intense distraction of Brexit and associated political uncertainty in the UK. Data releases will be highlighted by the November inflation report, where CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%. November retail ales and the third and final release of Q3 GDP are also due (Thursday and Friday, respectively).


Japan: BoJ announces policy (Wednesday, Thursday) with no changes expected. The November trade report (Wednesday) should see the deficit widen to JPY 700.0 bln from 450.0 bln previously. But there is risk from a weaker oil import bill. The October all-industry index (Thursday) is seen rising 1.5% from the prior 0.9% decline. November overall CPI (Friday) is penciled in sliding to a 0.7% y/y pace, half of the prior 1.4%, and to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% on a core basis.


Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 25.0k gain in November jobs after the 32.8k bounce in October. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.0%. The minutes to RBA’s December meeting are due on Tuesday. RBA held rates steady at 1.50% at the December 4 meeting. There are not any RBA speakers scheduled through year-end.


New Zealand’s calendar has Q3 GDP (Thursday), expected to slow to a 0.5% pace from the 1.0% rate of expansion in Q2 (q/q, sa). The trade deficit (Thursday) is projected to narrow to -NZ$1,000 mln in November from -1,295 mln in October. The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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