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Author Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.  (Read 14318 times)

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Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #120 on: June 03, 2019, 07:57:54 AM »

Date : 3rd June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd June 2019.






* Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP.


Monday – 03 June 2019


* Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into  the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday.


* ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.


Tuesday – 04 June 2019


* Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February.


* Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June.


* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.


* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A)


Wednesday – 05 June 2019


* Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) –  The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%.


* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.


Thursday – 06 June 2019


* Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues.


Friday – 07 June 2019


* Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30)  – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.


* Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #121 on: June 04, 2019, 09:04:36 AM »

Date : 4th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Risk aversion continues to prevail as US Treasuries, JPY , CHF and Gold remain in Bid mode


* Treasury yields did come off highs and the 10-year yield backed up 2.9 bps to 2.100%, after risk aversion and comments from Fed’s Bullard, who said a rate cut may be “warranted soon”, underpinned rate cut speculation and fresh gains in Treasuries yesterday.


* The RBA cut rates to record lows, as expected. The latter helped the ASX to outperform in Asia and move up 0.25%, but elsewhere stock markets were remained under pressure during the Asian, after the NASDAQ closed with a loss of -1.6% yesterday amid selling in the likes of Facebook and Amazon, with speculation of antitrust probes after the US Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission agreed to split up oversight of tech giants.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* USDAUD – H1 – Ran out of steam at 0.6990, but remains over daily pivot at 0.6960 and trades at 0.6982 as USD continues to soften into European session.  R1 and the psychological 0.7000 next key resistance. R2 at 0.7015 would need a significant deterioration in USD today.


* USDJPY – H1 – Keeps the bid as 108.00 handle is breached once more. S1 sits at 107.80, S2 at 107.56 and S3 at 107.24. Pivot Point and 20 period moving average at 108.10, R1 at 108.37 and R2 108.68. RSI remains north of OS at 34.7, Stochastics in OS zone all of Asian session and remain there. Lower Bollinger band 107.65.


Main Macro Events Today


* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.


* RBA Chair Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 09:30) – Due to speak at the RBA Dinner following today’s meeting – Q&A expected.


* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 13:55) – Due to speak in Chicago about Federal Reserve’s policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #122 on: June 06, 2019, 09:42:40 AM »

Date : 6th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Stock markets struggled during the Asian session, with mainland China bourses underperforming.


* Discussions between the US and Mexico ended without a breakthrough last night, which capped risk appetite, and stock markets struggled for direction during the Asian session.


* GER30 futures as well as US futures are also slightly in the red, despite better than expected German manufacturing data at the start of the session.


* German orders data better than expected, with manufacturing orders rising 0.3% m/m in April, while March data was revised up to 0.8% m/m from the 0.6% m/m reported initially. Still, a better than expected number, although the German manufacturing PMI is still firmly stuck in contraction territory and a real rebound doesn’t seem to be in sight.


* The WTI future remains pressured by EIA inventory data yesterday, but has come up to now $51.71 per barrel, after falling to a low of $57.20 in the wake of the report yesterday.


* Geopolitical trade tensions continue to provide a risk backdrop that is keeping bond markets underpinned amid growing conviction of additional central bank support.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* NZDUSD & NZDJPY – were the biggest movers and shakers yesterday in the forex markets, with the pairing and cross showing respective 0.6% and 0.7% gains at prevailing levels, with both modestly off highs. The outperformance of the Kiwi dollar, with buying having been catalyzed by RBNZ assistant governor, Hawkesby, vaulted the pair to a 4-week high at 0.7007. Overnight the pair turned lower to 0.6610, However however this could be a correction of the overbought asset. The overall outlook remains bullish as the asset extends Bollingers to the upside.




* USDJPY – H1 –  fell to 108.04 overnight, while the pair has since rebounded to 108.15 ahead of then London open. Given the slide in Treasury yields however, further upside for the pairing is likely to be limited. The next support level comes at the January 10 low of 107.77.


Main Macro Events Today


* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final Q1 results in the Eurozone are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 1.2%, and at 0.4% in quarterly basis.


* Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020.


* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen slightly in April to -$50.6 bln from -$50.0 bln in March.


* Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) Initial jobless claims for the week of May 31 are estimated to fall to 213k, after a 3k rise to 215k in the week of May 25.about Federal Reserve’s policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #123 on: June 07, 2019, 09:15:45 AM »

Date : 7th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Stock markets traded mixed in Asia, with Chinese markets underperforming, ahead of key US jobs data today.


* Hopes that Mexico tariffs may be postponed helped Wall Street to close higher, but Vice President Pence said the US still plans to impose tariffs on Mexico next week ahead of further talks today.


* China’s central bank head sounded relaxed on the Yuan, but stressed that the PBOC still had lots of policy room if the trade war worsens.


* CSI and Shanghai Comp still lost -0.9% and -1.2% respectively and the tech heavy Shenzen Comp fell back more than 2% as Facebook announced that it will no longer preinstall its app on Huawei phones, spelling more trouble for the beleaguered tech company.


* US Stock futures around 0.1% higher and the WTI future continued to climb up from the lows seen in the wake of EIA data Wednesday and is now trading at $53.28 per barrel.


* Ahead of EU open, German trade surplus narrowed as exports slumped, while German industrial production corrected -1.9% m/m in April.


* European stock futures are moving higher, led by a 0.6% rise in the DAX futures, which also ignored the weak April numbers


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* EURUSD – has been consolidating in a narrow range in the mid 1.1200s, consolidating the steep losses from 1.1306 that were seen during the London PM/NY morning session yesterday. It is expected that the Dollar would likely hold up better than the Euro in the scenario that further sustained bouts of risk aversion is seen in global markets in the months ahead, with US Treasuries offering the highest risk-free return around, regardless of prevailing market discounting of Fed rate cuts. The pair remains in a bear trend which has been evolving since early 2018. This was reaffirmed by the new two-year low that was printed last month at 1.1107. Resistance comes in at 1.1300-06 and 1.1323-25.


Main Macro Events Today


* Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30)  – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.


* Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #124 on: June 10, 2019, 07:50:23 AM »
Date : 10th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th June 2019.




* Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on the UK mess  and the Conservative Party’s leadership contest. Market attention is also honed in on the G20 meeting but also on the US economic data which will be scrutinized for any sign that trade uncertainties are impacting amid a slowing in economic growth.

Monday – 10 June 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (JPY, Sunday GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have increased by 0.4% in the first quarter, slightly lower than last time, reflecting weaker than expected household spending. The annualised outcome is seen at 1.8% after the stronger than expected 2.1% growth.

* Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00) – May’s exports are anticipated to contract to 3.8% y/y, from the 2.7% y/y. The trade balance should grow to $20.5bln in May from $13.83B in March. This report will be consistent with ongoing slowing in China’s domestic economy (falling imports) and the impact of the trade war with the US (drop in exports).

* Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The two indices are expected to have fallen back to 0.1% m/m and 0.2% m/m in April, confirming that the sector is back in contraction.

Tuesday – 11 June 2019

* Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.

* ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.

Wednesday – 12 June 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – May’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 2.7% y/y following the rise of 2.5% y/y in April.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.

Thursday – 13 June 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.1% in May, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 14K compared to 28.4K last month.

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation fell back in April to 1.3% y/y from 2.1% y/y. In May however, it is expected to rise to 2.1% y/y again.

* SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.

Friday – 14 June 2019

* Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #125 on: June 11, 2019, 07:51:59 AM »

Date : 11th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session, once again led by China after the US-Mexico deal also revived hopes of a US-Sino deal, despite Trump’s comments.


* President Trump: China deal is going to work out; but no deal means more tariffs.He said that he is ready to impose another round of tariffs on Chinese imports if there is no progress in talks with China’s President at the June 28-29 G20 summit.


* The expectations that China will ramp up stimulus programs to boost the flagging economy were boosted by news that China will allow local government to use proceeds from special bonds as capital for major investment projects.


* European stock futures are also moving higher as are US futures.


* US futures are up 0.3-0.4% and the WTI future is trading at $53.74 per barrel.


* The yen crosses lifted higher as the Japanese currency lost ground as the relief rally on easing trade tensions in equity markets continued.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* USDJPY lifted by over 30 pips in the hours after the Tokyo fixing today. USDJPY printed an intraday high at 108.64, but has so far remained shy of yesterday’s 11-day peak at 108.71. This week it has breached above its prior-week peak for only the second time out of the last 7 weeks. The pair could continue to hold a better footing for now, especially with the planned meeting between top-level US and Chinese officials at the upcoming G20 serving to arrest what had started seem an irrevocable downward spiral in relations between Washington and Beijing. It has support 108.32-35, and resistance at 108.91-94.


* EURUSD moved back above the 1.1300 mark, though well under Friday’s near 3-month high of 1.1347. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with resistance at Friday’s high, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367.


* Gold Futures retreated from Friday’s near 4-month high of $1,347.70, falling to $1,325. The moderate sell-off was driven by the return of risk-on conditions. The news that the US would not impose tariffs on Mexican goods helped the Dollar recover and saw yields and equity markets move higher, all gold-negatives.


Main Macro Events Today


* Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.


* ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.


* Producer Price Index ex Food & energy (USD, GMT 12:30) – A flat rate is anticipated for headline PPI in May, and a 0.2% rise in the core index.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #126 on: June 12, 2019, 08:00:34 AM »

Date : 12th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Market sentiment turned cautious again ahead of the G-20 summit.


* Bund yields declined from the off, as Treasuries rallied following President Trump’s criticism.


* President Trump said it is he who is holding up the China trade deal until the country returns to agreed terms. He also stepped up his criticism of the Fed, saying rates are “way too high“.


* He also stated that the EUR and other currencies devalued against the Dollar.


* Stock market sentiment turned cautious again and Asian markets are mostly in the red, as are European and US futures.


* This underpinned Treasury yields and saw yields coming down again. A -1.74% decline in the Hang Seng led broad losses in Asian stock markets, amid protests in the city and signs of rising funding costs.


* The WTI future fell back below the $53 per barrel market.


* The European data calendar is focusing on UK inflation numbers and ECB’s Draghi is set to speak amid signs that council members are split on the assessment of inflation expectations.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* EURUSD is trading at 1.335 maintained a narrow trading band, with the Dollar overall largely in a holding pattern, following fairly steep losses seen over the past week or so. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with Resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1347, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367.


Main Macro Events Today


* ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 08:15)


* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #127 on: June 13, 2019, 07:34:05 AM »

Date : 13th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Treasury yields have fallen back -1.2 bp to 2.108%, as weaker than expected CPI numbers out of the U.S. yesterday adding to speculation of rate cuts in the US.


* Fed funds futures price in about 80% chance for rate cut by by end of July.


* Asian bond markets were mostly supported, although JGBs corrected and the 10-year yield moved up 0.5 bp to -0.118% as a stronger Yen curbed investor appetite for Japanese assets.


* Stock markets mostly remained under pressure in Asia, with the Hang Seng declining -0.79% as large political demonstrations continue to unsettle investors.


* In Europe German HICP for May was confirmed at just 1.3% y/y this morning, which together with the decline in market based indicators for inflation expectations will also keep easing speculation alive as stock markets remain weighed down by geopolitical trade jitters.


* Oil prices continued to decline, with trade jitters continuing to weigh on sentiment and the  WTI future is currently trading at USD 51.43 per barrel, up from yesterday’s lows, following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* WTI crude fell at $50.70 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 0.5 mln bbl decrease, though the API revealed a 4.9 mln bbl build after the close on Tuesday. Overall, a fairly bearish report, which added further pressure on the USOIL downtrend. In the near-term the outlook remains bearish as well, while only a break above 52.80 could suggest a short term reversal to the upside.


Main Macro Events Today


* SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.


* Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of June 7 are estimated to fall to 217k, after holding at 218k in the week of June 1.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #128 on: June 14, 2019, 08:44:27 AM »

Date : 14th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Tense geopolitical events in the Mid East injected some risk in the market, providing a boost to bonds after reports surfaced overnight that two oil tanker were damaged off the coast of Iran.


* Stock markets traded mixed in Asia with Hong Kong and China bourses under-performing.


* Australian yields marked new record lows amid concern that geopolitical trade tensions will hit global growth and prompt central banks to step up easing measures.


* The FTSE 100 future is posting fractional gains as Brexit supporter Boris Johnson emerges as the clear favorite to win the leadership contest in the conservative party and succeed Teresa May.


* Investors await data releases that are expected to show ongoing weakness in the economy.


* The WTI future is at USD 52.16 per barrel after yesterday’s attacks.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* EURUSD headed to 1-week lows of 1.1269 at mid-morning, and it is now traded higher at 1.1277 area. Trade this week has been centered on the 1.1300 mark, and further consolidation is expected ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement. There is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is expected to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Until then, EURUSD can be expected to remain between its 50-day moving average at 1.1219, and its 200-day moving average at 1.1363.


* USDJPY has been rangebound,topping at 108.53 before later ebbing back to 108.23 lows. Treasury yields however, continue under pressure following benign CPI on Wednesday, and soft import prices early on Thursday, putting some pressure on the Dollar. As a result, USDJPY has been nearly static. Further consolidation is expected into next Week’s Fed policy announcement.


Main Macro Events Today


* Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.


* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #129 on: June 17, 2019, 07:58:19 AM »
Date : 17th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th June 2019.




* A policy-packed week, with monetary policy meetings in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In the UK, the voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. On the data front, focus turns on inflation and Retail sales.

Monday – 17 June 2019

* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BoE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.

Tuesday – 18 June 2019

* RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth and inflation).

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.

Wednesday – 19 June 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.

* Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.

* Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.

Thursday – 20 June 2019

* Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”.

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

Friday – 21 June 2019

* Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.


* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.


* Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #130 on: Yesterday at 07:53:31 AM »

Date : 18th June 2019.


MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th June 2019.






FX News Today


* Wall Street was managed modest gains, supported by a better than 1% rise in industrials which offset a drop in materials. The markets generally shrugged off a sharp drop in the Empire State manufacturing index and a weaker than expected NAHB housing market index.


* Asia stock market gains were capped by caution ahead of the Fed meeting.


* Topix and Nikkei lost -0.88% and -0.81% respectively as the Yen strengthened, the Hang Seng continued to recover and moved up 0.70% after being pressured by political protests last week.


* The ASX gained 0.54% after getting cut a boost from RBA meeeting minutes signaling another rate cut could be underway.


* GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed.


* US futures are slightly in the red.


* Speculation that the Fed will signal rate cuts is mounting and in Europe ECB officials seem to be readying further easing measures, while the BoE is widely expected to remain on hold amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty.


Charts of the Day





Technician’s Corner


* AUDUSD also fell to a 5-month low, at 0.6833. The underperformance of the Australian follow was catalyzed by the release of the RBA minutes to the June policy meeting, which saw the central bank cut its cash rate to a record low of 1.25%. The minutes showed that the RBA is of a mind to ease policy again, as soon as July, given prevailing concerns about unemployment and disinflation. AUDJPY pegged below 3-year lows at 74.50, hence next Support is at June 2016 low at 72.40 .


* GBPJPY has hit fresh lows, and the yen has remained bid amid a backdrop of continued sputtering in global stock markets. GBPJPY daily volatility has fallen from 140 pips in February to less than 120 today. Key Support levels for both pairs sit at 133.80 and 132.30 respectively.


Main Macro Events Today


* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.


* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.


* BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)


* ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)


Support and Resistance levels





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


 

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