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Author Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.  (Read 80697 times)

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Offline HFblogNewsTopic starter

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #210 on: November 20, 2019, 10:31:31 AM »
Date : 20th November 2019.

FX Update – 20th November 2019.




EURUSD, H1

The Dollar and Yen have firmed up amid a risk-off turn in global markets as tensions between the US and China bubble up. The US Senate yesterday passed a bill in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters, to which Beijing responded sharply, accusing Washington of being ignorant of “facts and truths” while threatening retaliation for interfering with what it sees as its internal affairs. This comes with little sign of the long since tabled, and unambitious, “Phase 1” partial trade deal coming to fruition. Sources cited by Reuters report that US President Trump is wanting deeper concessions from China in return for making a full roll back of tariffs and cancelling additional tariffs scheduled to take effect on 15 December.



Against this backdrop, the Yen has seen its risk premium rise, albeit moderately so. USDJPY ebbed to a six-day low at 108.35, with the Japanese currency outperforming an otherwise firm Dollar. EURJPY posted a six-day low, and other Yen crosses also declined. The narrow trade-weighted USD Index printed a two-day high at 97.93, putting in some distance from the 15-day low seen on Monday at 97.68. EURUSD concurrently saw a two-day low at 1.1055, and Cable a three-day low at 1.2888, with last night’s General Election debate seen as a “draw” but with the Conservatives coming under criticism for misleading the public after it rebranded one of its Twitter accounts to “factcheckUK”.



Sharp declines in oil prices, where concerns of a supply glut have run into concerns about the US-China situation, have driven underperformance in the Canadian Dollar, lifting USDCAD to a near six-week high at 1.3296. The pair is up nearly 1% from yesterday’s lows. USOil futures have dropped by 4% over the last two days, yesterday posting the biggest one-day tumble in seven weeks and testing $55.00. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also lower, though by a lesser extent, and most developing-nation currencies are softer.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #211 on: November 21, 2019, 09:42:56 AM »
Date : 21st November 2019.

Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – 21st November 2019.

[​IMG]

Equities continue lower ahead of ECB – Stock markets head south on trade deal doubts, while a risk-off, or at least a risk-wary sentiment looks likely to prevail, which could keep safe-haven currencies, primarily the JPY and USD, underpinned, The high beta currencies such as the Dollar bloc and many developing-world currencies are under pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #212 on: November 25, 2019, 09:50:10 AM »
Date : 25th November 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 25th November 2019.




*Its a short but also busy week, as the Thanksgiving holiday will keep US markets close on Thursday and partially on Friday. From a data perspective, it will definitely be an eventful week with Wednesday and Thursday being the most data-heavy days with US GDP and Durable Goods, and Inflation releases from Europe and Tokyo.

Monday – 25 November 2019

* German IFO Business Climate (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. November numbers are expected to show a decline in business climate.

Tuesday – 26 November 2019

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Consumer confidence is expected to rebound to 128.0 in November from 125.9 in October, versus an 8-month high of 135.8 in July, a 16-month low of 121.7 seen as recently as January, and an 18-year high of 137.9 last October. The present situation index is anticipated to dip to 169.0 from 172.3 in October, versus a 19-year high of 176.0 in August. The expectations index should rise to 100.6 in November from 94.9 in October, versus an 18-year high of 115.1 in October of 2018. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

Wednesday – 27 November 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Q3 GDP growth is expected to be boosted to 2.1% from 1.9%. The revised Q3 data will still depict a quarter with a wide gap between solid consumption growth but contracting business fixed investment in the face of trade uncertainty, slowing growth abroad, disruptions from the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, and the UAW-GM strike.

* Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in October after a 0.3% increase in September, alongside a 0.4% rise in consumption that follows a 0.2% September gain.

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in October with a -4.4% drop in transportation orders, after a -1.2% headline orders drop in September, and a 0.2% uptick in August. Boeing orders fell to just 10 planes in October from 25 in September. A continued headwind from problems with the Boeing 737 Max and disruptions from the UAW-GM strike have prompted buyers to delay new orders and vehicle assemblies to fall to an 8-year low pace.


Thursday- 28 November 2019

* United States – Thanksgiving Day – US closed.

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could slip to -0.6% m/m for November from 0.1% m/m. The annualized outcome is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9% y/y.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to remain at 0.4% y/y core in November, and to slip at 0.4% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 1.9% growth y/y in October, compared to 1.3% last month.

Friday – 29 November 2019

* United States – Thanksgiving Day – US early closed at 13:00.

* Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – Unemployment numbers are probably nearly as important as the GDP growth figure. German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged in the annual basis however unemployment change for November is expected to decline to 2K from 6K.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area flash CPI for November is forecasted to rise slightly, at 0.9% y/y from 0.7% y/y last month while core is seen at 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q3 following the surge in Q2 growth to a 3.7% clip that was driven by temporary factors. This will add to the backing for a near term rate cut for the Bank of Canada.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #213 on: January 14, 2020, 11:10:31 AM »
Date : 14th January 2020.

Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies




Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies – A fresh injection of risk-on trading saw the Yen decline further and stocks rally overnight after trade data out of China showed a drop in exports to the US last year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #214 on: January 15, 2020, 11:36:16 AM »

Date : 15th January 2020.


GOLDMAN SACHS and the 4th Quarter of 2019 15th January 2020.






As Earnings season is kicking off again, focus is on the Banks’ reports this week. JP Morgan, City Group and Wells Fargo published their Q4 2019 reports yesterday before the US market open. JP Morgan and City Group beat expectations strongly, whilst Walls Fargo missed and saw its shares falling over 4% right after the report.


Today, investors’ attention is on whether Bank of America and GS will follow JP Morgan’s success story.


Goldman Sachs is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results before the US market open. In Q3 2019, the bank beat revenue forecasts but missed in earnings, while it posted a decline in Revenue and earnings in comparison with the previous quarter, affected by weakness seen in Investment Banking and Lending. Overall, in the past 2 years it has beaten earning and revenue estimations 88% of the time.


GS , in an attempt to improve its profitability and stock performance, has proceeded with several changes and several restructure and expansion plans for the near future and also the next 5 years. One of their latest projects, which was launched in August, was the development of credit cards with Apple, while they also introduced a long-awaited app last week (January 8), which according to Reuters, ” will integrate with the financial giant’s digital bank, Marcus”. Marcus is Goldman Sachs’s consumer banking unit, which was founded by Goldman Sachs in 2016, named after the bank’s founder Marcus Goldman.


In the long term meanwhile, GS has focused on its request to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). As the China Morning Post stated, GS is one of the US banks which has an official branch in China and has been applying to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) since last August to take majority control of its venture known as Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities, seeking to raise its stake to 51% from 33%. The hiring push on the mainland is part of the US bank’s new five-year plan in which Chief Executive David Solomon is looking to improve its profitability and share price performance.


It will be interesting to see whether all the above expansion plans will affect the bank’s earnings report today, but also how they could expand its wealth management business and broaden its revenue streams in 2020.


Zack’s estimates for Q4 Earnings are:


EPS Estimate: $5.20


Sales Estimates:


* Low: 8.70B
* High: 8.82B
* Year over Year Growth: 8.37%


Earnings Estimates:


* Low: $4.54
* High: $5.42
* Year over Year Growth: -13.91%


Technical overview:


The monthly chart shows the free fall seen on GS shares in 2018 to $151.60 from its all-time high in March 2018 at $275.60. In 2019, shares managed to recover by nearly 78%, as the price moved successfully to $274.64.





However, in the Daily chart, momentum indicators suggest that positive bias is starting to lose some ground , with OBV indicator unable to move further to the upside, suggesting nearterm weakness. The asset price is still moving upwards, however it’s moving outside the upper Bollinger Bands area, with RSI crossing above 70, both suggesting that the asset looks overbought. This comes in line with OBV. Hence from a technical perspective a correction could be seen in the medium term as the asset is overbought.  From the data perspective, positive bias could theoretically strengthen if the upcoming earnings report beats expectations.


Resistance levels: $249,  $261, $275


Support levels: $236,  $227, $214







Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Ahura Chalki
Regional Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #215 on: January 16, 2020, 10:27:19 AM »

Date : 16th January 2020.


Narrow US trade gap in Q4 – Its meaning and what to expect in 2020? 16th January 2020.






A drop in the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China in Q4 sharply understates the underlying improvement, thanks to a powerful seasonal pattern in goods trade between the two countries that bloated the Q4 deficit. A plunge is anticipated in the gap to a February trough that should mark the narrowest deficit since 2013.


Though the overall US trade gap will widen in 2020 if the economy grows, phase-one agreement will be followed by news over the coming three months of a collapsing US-China trade deficit.


The US-China trade deficit for goods narrowed sharply last winter to just $20.7 bln in March of 2019 from a peak of $43.1 bln in October of 2018, with a gyration that was exacerbated by tariff front running.


The seasonal widening into Q4 of 2019 failed to occur, while a seasonal narrowing is expected into the Lunar New Year that should prompt a February goods deficit in the $20 bln area — less than half of the peak just 16 months earlier.





The seasonal pattern is mostly driven by the US import data from China. The unusually large gyration in 2018 was due to tariff front running, which pulled imports ahead into Q4 from Q1. Goods imports appeared to resume their seasonal climb until they reached a $41.5 bln level in July of 2019, leaving an -11.9% shortfall from July of 2018. From their, the seasonal climb oddly ended, and imports fell to just $36.5 bln in November to leave a y/y drop of an enormous -21.6%.


If the seasonal drop now unfolds, imports from China should fall to the $28 bln area by February. The drop will be exacerbated this year by a relatively early Lunar New Year date of January 25.


The seasonal pattern for imports has been quite stable over the years, until the big deviation in the pattern in 2019, which suggests that the atypical seasonal behavior this year is due to the “trade war.”


The seasonal pattern is less stable, and less pronounced, for US goods exports to China, and the pattern of US exports has been fairly erratic over the last year. The dominant pattern over the past two years has been a drop in US exports to China between the start of the “trade war” in early 2018 to a trough in January of 2019, before largely stabilizing since then.The fact that Chinese policymakers cut all unnecessary trade with the US over this period, leaves little room for further cuts through 2019 and into 2020.





Beyond the “trade war,” there have been two other major patterns in the US trade data that will likely have the effect of narrowing the US-China bilateral trade deficit over the coming year. One is the depressing effect on US exports from the 737 MAX grounding since March of 2019, leaving a likely dramatic rebound over the year following the lifting of the FAA ban presumably later this year. The other major pattern is the steep climb in US exports of petroleum products, as the Permian Basin is rapidly transforming into a major export center thanks to ongoing innovations in pressurized and lateral drilling.





The seasonal patterns are expected to allow a deficit to return for the last time between December and April, before the US becomes a “permanent” net petroleum exporter. China is dependent on petroleum imports, and hence it is anticipated that US exporters capture more of this market over the coming years, especially given that the phase-one deal involves a shift in Chinese purchases toward US commodities.


The combination of a narrowing US-China trade deficit, strength in US exports of petroleum-related products, and an assumed Boeing-led surge in capital goods exports at some point this year, may all suggest a narrowing US trade gap.


Hence to be sure, as the trade gap declined to the lowest during Donald Trump presidency, will add to GDP if not in the long term definitely in the near term, possible during February-March with help from the Chinese New Year and Phase-1 deal.


Overall however, a US GDP growth out-performance versus other countries in 2020 is anticipated, and a firm Dollar with strong capital account inflows, that should fuel a widening trade deficit through the year despite the narrowing bilateral gap with China.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #216 on: January 17, 2020, 10:02:55 AM »

Date : 17th January 2020.


Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data 17th January 2020.






Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data – Sentiment was supported by robust US retail sales on Thursday, ongoing good will following the Phase One trade deal and good earnings data, despite the slowdown of Chinese GDP growth to the lowest in 29 years.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #217 on: January 20, 2020, 08:34:45 AM »

Date : 20th January 2020.


Events to Look Out For Next Week 20th January 2020.






*An important week is coming up with regards to economic announcements and central banks, as PBoC, BoJ, BoC and ECB rate decision are expected to take place although none are expected to shake the market. Meanwhile, reduced liquidity will define trading on Friday as the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday begins.


Monday – 20 January 2020


* Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The PBoC is expected to keep its interest rates at 4.15%.


Tuesday – 21 January 2020


* Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. The BoJ Governor said in his last statement that cutting rates further is a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance for now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement.


* Employment and Earnings (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earning growth excluding bonus is expected to have declined by 3.4% in November, below the 3.5% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for November could rise to 3.9% from 3.8%.


* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for January is projected at 4.3 from the 10.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline further to 5.5 from 11.2. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.


Wednesday – 22 January 2020


* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for December is expected to have come out slightly lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. The CPI backstops continue to back the BoC’s steady policy outlook.


* Interest Rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 15:00) – No change is seen in the current 1.75% policy setting, alongside an announcement and MPR that are consistent with steady policy through year end.


Thursday- 23 January 2020


* Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 13:30) – Australia’s recent employment report showed a slowdown in jobs growth also affected by the bushfires crisis. In December, the unemployment rate is anticipated to jump back to 5.3%  while the employment change is expected to fall to 14K from 39.9K last time.


* ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 & 13:30) – The ECB is expected to keep policy on hold in January as policy review starts. The ECB kept policy on hold and re-affirmed easing bias at the December policy meeting.


* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall New Zealand CPI for Q4 should rise to 2.2% y/y from 1.5%.


* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ Minutes report provides the BoJ Members’ opinions regarding the Japanese economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes.


Friday – 24 January 2020


* Chinese New Year’s Eve – Asia Markets closed


* Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The prel. December manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.3 from 45.9, still down from 46.9 in November. The manufacturing sector has been stuck in recession for eleven successive months. The composite PMI for January meanwhile is expected to be lifted to 51.0 along with a possible rise in services.


* Markit PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The prel. UK Services PMI for January is forecasted to register a downwards reading  to 49.4  after the upwards revision last week at 50.0.


* Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales should register a gain in November to 0.1%, after the -1.2% plunge to 0.1% in total sales values in October.


* Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have decreased to 52.3 in January, compared to 52.4 in December.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #218 on: January 21, 2020, 07:51:59 AM »

Date : 21st January 2020.


FX Update – US Closed & USD Softer 21st January 2020.






EURUSD, H1


The Dollar has seen modest weakness in quiet early-week trading. Volumes are likely to remain on the low side today with US markets closed for the Martin Luther King holiday.


Stock markets in Asia remained buoyant after bellwether indices in the US and Europe hit record highs (again) on Friday. Mostly upbeat earnings, reduced trade uncertainty and, more fundamentally, accommodative central banks (the Fed’s capping of repo rates is of particular note, which has swelled its balance sheet by 11% since last September) along with a persisting benign inflationary picture, have been maintaining the bull run on global stock markets.


EURUSD steadied after dropping over the last two days of last week, which left a 10-day low at 1.1085. Earlier, German PPI inflation ended 2019 at -0.2% y/y, up from -0.7% y/y in November and in fact a tad higher than anticipated. However, the uptick was mainly due to the fact that negative base effects from energy prices fell out of the equation, which was already evident in HICP readings and thus the PPI number doesn’t change the overall outlook. Inflation remains too low for the ECB’s liking and both the definition of the benchmark inflation rate and the target itself are set to the part of the ECB’s strategic policy overhaul that is set to start in earnest this week. EURUSD is once again testing the 1.1085 and the key 61.8 Fibonacci level at 1.1079, and S1 sits at 1.1070 and the December/November low 1.0980.





USDJPY went into narrow-range mode, posting just less than a 15-pip range in Asia through to the open of the London interbank market. Cable edged out a five-day low at 1.2985, and EURGBP lifted above its Friday peak in making a high at 0.8456. The possibility of the BoE cutting rates at its MPC meeting this Thursday should keep the Pound under pressure. The UK finance minister remarked over the weekend to the Financial Times that the UK would not be a “ruletaker” after Brexit, urging businesses to “adjust”. This has been taken negatively by businesses and has also weighed on Sterling today. USDCAD ebbed fractionally lower, to a 1.3055 low, which is near the midway point of the range seen over the last week.


Oil prices rallied at the opening of trading today, which sent front-month USOil to an 11-day high at $59.66. Reports that two large production sites in Libya closed in the face of military blockades (the country is amid a long-running civil war) underpinned prices. This was ahead of the Libya Conference in Paris at the weekend and seen as muscle flexing by the main opposition group. Elsewhere, AUDUSD recouped nearly half of the decline seen on Friday in carving out a high at 0.6888. The Aussie Dollar on Friday printed a 10-day low at 0.6871. RBA money markets positioning has continued to imply a 56% probability for the RBA trimming the cash rate by 25 bp at its February-4 policy meeting, unchanged since last Thursday.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


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Stuart Cowell
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #219 on: January 22, 2020, 08:18:23 AM »

Date : 22nd January 2020.


Bitcoin – Exposed to corrections; bias cautiously bullish 22nd January 2020.






Bitcoin, Daily and Weekly


For the past two days, Bitcoin has been consolidating gains seen during January in a  a safe haven play on rising concerns about the US-China trade war, geopolitical tensions and Iran sanctions, but also following the launch of options on the CME Globex.


Bitcoin staged a stunning upside reversal around the $6,400- $6,800 support area a week ago, with the price surging back above the 200-day Simple Moving average and towards two-month highs.


Currently however, sellers are pushing for a recoil below the 61.8% Fibonacci of $8,562 of the downleg from $9,904 to $6,407, a break of which could see the retest of the $8,148 barrier, which reflects the 50% Fibonacci level. Particularly if the 50% Fibonacci does not hold and sellers move below it, then the $8,000 number could come back into play.


However, moving higher, above the psychological resistance at $9,000, could next captivate trader’s attention and trigger another bullish action towards $9,570 – $9,904, i.e. the October-November upswings.


Still, with the RSI close to overbought waters,as the indicator moves softly towards its 70 overbought mark, downside corrections cannot be ruled out in the near term. On the contrary, MACD lines keep gaining ground in the positive territory. If MACD and RSI keep gaining ground in the positive territory, the price may continue to head higher.







Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #220 on: January 23, 2020, 09:06:01 AM »

Date : 23rd January 2020.


How To Improve Your Trading Mindset 23rd January 2020.






Our Head Market Analyst, Stuart, explains how to improve your Trading Mindset. Understand the importance of emotional control and discipline through an unmissable Q&A session.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Stuart Cowell
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #221 on: January 24, 2020, 10:25:30 AM »

Date : 24th January 2020.


PMIs in focus – EUR, GBP & USD 24th January 2020.






PMI data from Europe, UK and USA will be the main drivers for the FX market today.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Stuart Cowell
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HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #222 on: January 27, 2020, 09:34:23 AM »
Date : 27th January 2020

Events to Look Out For Next Week 27th January 2020.
[/size]Brexit Day has officially arrived, however BoE and FOMC take the centre stage next week. Meanwhile, the world’s attention has turned to the coronavirus and how well it will be contained. Note that markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, with the former two now closed through to the end of next week.Monday – 27 January 2020German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. January’s numbers are expected to decline.
[/color]
  • Tuesday – 28 January 2020Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. December’s Durable goods orders are expected to rise 2.0% with a 6.0% bounce in transportation orders, after a -2.1% headline orders decrease in November that was hit with a -5.9% transportation orders decline. Boeing orders for planes plunged to 3 after bouncing to 63 in November thanks to a boost from the Dubai Air Show.
  • Chicago Board Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Chicago Board Index is expected to have increased from 126.5 in December to 127.2 in January.
  • Wednesday – 29 January 2020Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Inflation is expected to have unchanged close to 1.7% y/y, after flattered to 0.5% in Q4.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – No change is expected at the Fed meeting, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after cutting rates three times last year. However, guidance regarding future rate movements is expected.
  • Thursday – 30 January 2020Interest Rate Decision and conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE is expected to remain on hold, especially after the UK Jan flash composite PMI smashed expectations today. Positioning in OIS markets now implies a 47% probability for the BoE trimming the repo rate by 25 bp at the January-30th MPC meeting next week, so markets are still anticipating easier monetary policy, albeit to a lesser extent than recently. Policymakers will still be looking to see the full impact that the lifting of Brexit and political fog has since the election in mid December, especially with the global economy looking to be holding up.
  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q4 GDP growth of 2.4% is expected with a huge $67 bln surge in net exports due to a big import plunge, but a similarly huge but nearly offsetting -$53 bln Q4 inventory subtraction that leaves an accumulation rate of just $17 bln.
  • Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In January, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, lower than December, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration.
  • Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 2-month dive in October and November, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, December’s Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 0.7% on a y/y basis.
  • Friday – 31 January 2020Brexit Deadline
  • Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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    HERE to register for FREE!

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    Andria Pichidi
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    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[/b][/size][/font]

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #223 on: January 28, 2020, 07:02:09 AM »
Date : 28th January 2020.

New Homes Sales add to the woes 28th January 2020.
[/size]USA30, H1US new home sales dipped -0.4% in December to a 694k pace, after November’s revised -1.1% drop to 697k (was 719k). October was bumped down to 705k, versus 710k. This is the lowest since July. Sales were at a 564k rate last December. Regionally, sales declined in the Northeast and South, and rose in the Midwest and West. The month’s supply of homes rose to 5.7 from 5.5 (revised from 5.4). The median sales prices increased 3.3% to $331,400 after November’s -0.8% slide to $320,900 (revised from $330,800). That’s a +0.5% y/y clip versus 4.0% y/y in November (revised from 7.2% y/y). The drop in sales and downward revisions are a disappointment. Housing was a significant plus point for the US economy in 2019.US equities are sharply lower, following on the heels of the plunge in stocks globally on heightened worries over the spreading coronavrius and concern about slowing global economic growth. The USA100 trades 1.76% lower at 9150, the USA500 is 1.41% lower at 3249 with the USA30 is down over 400 points (1.4%) at 28,586, from the breach of the 200-period moving average on Fridays close.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[/size]

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #224 on: January 30, 2020, 11:40:09 AM »

Date : 30th January 2020.


EURUSD & FOMC Preview






EURUSD, H1


EURUSD edged out a fresh two-month low at 1.0994, racking up today as the sixth consecutive trading day where a lower low has been seen. The new low is the culmination of a moderate downtrend that’s been unfolding over the last couple of weeks, from levels above 1.1150. The Dollar has been outperforming the common currency in the context of rising risk aversion in global markets, while ECB policymakers have been signalling that accommodative monetary policy will remain in place for the foreseeable future given economic risks. ECB’s Rehn said earlier that the monetary arsenal hasn’t been exhausted yet.


The Dollar, meanwhile, is currently registering as the strongest of the main currencies on the year-to-date, reflecting international demand for Treasuries (the Dollar is up by 3.9% versus the Aussie dollar, which is the weakest, closely followed by the Kiwi dollar (3.0%) and is showing a near 0.5% gain on the Yen, which is the second strongest).





In the bigger picture, the EURUSD has been trending lower since early 2018, dropping from levels near 1.2500 and posting a 32-month low at 1.0879 in early October, the current nadir of the trend. Momentum has faded, however, with the Fed having backed out of its tightening phase after hiking rates three times last year. The central bank has since been engaged in capping the repo rate, which has seen its balance swell by some 11% since last September, and Fed funds futures are discounting about 72% odds for a 25 bp easing at the last FOMC meeting of the year in December, after the US Presidential election (which the markets are  assuming will see Mr. Trump back in the White House).


The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement at 19:00 GMT later today. There is no reason to expect a change in the fed funds target range of 1.50%-1.75%. Data released since the December meeting did little to change the Fed’s commitment to a policy pause until we see a “material change” in the outlook. The statement and press conference will be monitored closely for any remaining tilt in the Fed’s policy toward easing. Expectations are that the Fed will refrain from signaling further action, either in the statement or the ensuing (19:30) press conference. As ever, nuances and inferences from Jay Powell will be closely followed by market participants, commentators and of course, President Trump.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.



Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


 

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