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Author Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.  (Read 140857 times)

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #405 on: January 11, 2021, 12:42:13 PM »

Date : 11th January 2021.

Events to Look Out for This Week.[/B]



2021 has started and even though it is set to be far better than 2020, January remains as stormy and volatile as its predecessor. In the week ahead, the markets are expected to continue to buy into the recovery story. In regards to data, this will be a week of increased attention to the global inflation releases and production numbers out of the UK and China. The markets also remain focused on potential further lockdowns and tighter restrictions.

Monday – 11 January 2021

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery broadened further, as manufacturing sentiment measures were firm and a key non-manufacturing sentiment measure remained elevated. CPI is expected to accelerate to in December as well with a 0.1% y/y pace in December following the 0.5% decline last month.

BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 15:00)

Tuesday – 12 January 2021

BoE’s Broadbent speech (GBP, GMT 10:00)
Fed’s Brainard speech (USD, GMT 14:35)
Fed’s Rosengren speech (USD, GMT 19:00)

Wednesday – 13 January 2021

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) –The December inflation reports should reveal a big energy-led gain for CPI with a moderate core price rise, and big increases for 0.4%m/m growth which  would result in a 1.3% headline y/y increase.

Thursday – 14 January 2021

Imports and Exports (CNY, GMT N/A) – Consumer demand picked up and exports also climbed, as trade flows resumed after the weakness in Q2 in China. This is expected to be confirmed also in December’s release as imports expected to raise by 0.5% and exports by 15%.

Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of January 9 should remain elevated, though a -17k down-tick in the weekly pace to 770k has been assumed, after a -3k drop to 787k from 790k. Seasonal adjustment for initial claims was switched to being additive from multiplicative in September, and the usual seasonal rise in NSA claims through the holidays may be lifting the reported SA data with the new seasonal factors given the unusually high level of claims. We are likely also seeing a lift from expanding coronavirus restrictions.

Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:30)

Friday – 15 January 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 00:30) – UK nations have gone into a ‘tier 5’ lockdown, the most restrictive level since the full lockdown of spring last year, although manufacturing, auto repair businesses, DIY and garden stores, remain open, along with food sellers. High street retail, aviation and other public transport, along with the hospitality sector, are bearing the brunt of the lockdown, as in other nations, although the percentage impact on GDP from these sectors being closed is bigger in the UK than most peers. The UK saw a bigger peak-to-trough GDP contraction than any other G20 nation in 2020 as a consequence of the national and global countermeasures taken to table Covid-19. With UK in lockdown season since November, November’s GDP figure expected to present a severe decline to 4.0% m/m with Manufacturing and industrial production at 0.7% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively from 1.7% m/m and 1.3% m/m in October.

US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) –A -0.2% December retail sales headline dip is forecasted with a -0.4% ex-autos decline, following respective November decreases of -1.1% and -0.9%. Unit vehicle sales rebounded in December, and this should support the auto dealer component. Typical strength is being undermined by rising coronavirus restrictions during the holiday shopping season.

Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% December PPI headline rise is anticipated with a 0.1% core price gain, following gains of 0.1% for both in November. As expected readings would result in a y/y headline PPI metric of 0.6%, down from 0.8% in November. A rebound in energy prices should boost the headline. Oil prices are rebounding after a fall pause and a bottom in April, thanks to a better supply-demand balance in the petroleum sector, and supply constraints for some sectors should remain problematic into Q1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #406 on: January 12, 2021, 04:49:10 PM »
Date : 12th January 2021.

Market Update – January 5 – Georgia on everybody’s mind.



FX News Today

USD continues to bounce (Day 5), and Yields up significantly as virus worries escalate and political uncertainty swirls. Democrats lodge papers to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn’t act to remove him. Neither of which are likely to come to fruition but the symbolism is significant. Equities lower (TSLA -7.82% & TWTR -6.4%), Asian markets mixed (Japan flat). Bitcoin crashed 20% before recovering 50% of loss, Oil recovered & Gold remains pressured by strong Yields. Overnight – weak Japanese bank lending and the worst UK Retail Sales figures since 1995, +4.8% vs 5.9% & 7.7% in Dec.

USDIndex – 5th day higher from 33-mth low (89.15) and back over 90.00 but struggled over at 90.70 at 2-day high. Trades at 90.40 – PP 90.30 – S1 90.15, R1 90.65

EUR – 4th day lower – trades under 1.2200 (R1) – 1.2130 (S1) yesterday, for a 18-day low, back to 1.2160 now– PP – 1.2180. 3 Black Crows on Daily Chart completed.



 JPY – 5th day higher but stalled ahead of 104.50 (R2) yesterday – Trades at 104.12 (PP), R1 104.30, S1 103.92

GBP – down to 1.3450 (S1) yesterday. Back over 1.3500 and over R1 at 1.3555. PP 1.3510, R2 & 200Hr MA 1.3585

AUD – Under 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7660  – back to PP now 0.7725 – R1 0.7750,      NZD – Down to 0.7150 yesterday – back to PP 0.7180,  R1 0.7210                                   CAD – 1.2835 high yesterday – trades at 1.2745 (PP & 200MA)  – R1 1.2800                   CHF – Trades at 0.8900 – up from 3 yr lows on Wednesday at 0.8757. PP 0.8850 

BTC – Major Volatility yesterday – plunged 20%+ to $29,800. Retraced over 50% of fall – Back to around $36,400.

GOLD – Tested 1820 as Yields rose – Trades at 1858 now, PP 1840                             USOil – $52.70 high Friday  – trades at $51.60  (R1) now – still elevated, after dip to $51.50.

USA500 – Closed down 25 (-0.66%) 3799 – USA500 FUTS now at 3805. 47 days north of 20SMA (3735).

Today – US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO,  BoE’s Broadbent, Fed’s Brainard, Kaplan, Mester, Rosengren, ECB’s de Cos

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.40%) Bounced from 200MA on open. Breached PP (0.6384) earlier and tested R1 (0.6400). Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remains south  of 0 line this morning, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0050.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #407 on: January 13, 2021, 06:02:26 PM »
Date : 13th January 2021.

FX Update – January 13 – USD & Yields stall their run, Politics swirls.



FX News Today

USD reversed its 5 day run as Yields stalled too.  House vote tonight to impeach President Trump, (YouTube have banned him for 7 days), Pence will not initiate the 25th Amendment to remove him. The symbolism is significant, no President has ever been impeached twice. Equities flat too (UBER +7.24%,TSLA +4.72%, FB -2.24%, GooGL & NFLX -1.00%) Asian markets also flat. GBP rallied after Bailey pushed back on Negative Interest Rates. Oil rallied over 1% after surprise inventory drawdowns peaked at $53.90, AUD pegged by possible RBA “push back” to strong AUD. Gold recovered $1850.

China reported its largest daily new COVID-19 cases in 5 months.

USDIndex – Back under 90.00 from rejection of 90.50 yesterday. Trades at 89.95 just over S3 – PP 90.40 – S3 89.90, S2 90.07

EUR – Recovered back over 1.2200 (R2) – Trades at 1.2215 now– PP – 1.2157. R3 1.2225 –



JPY – Reverses under 104.000 – after rejection 104.50 on Monday. – Trades at 103.68 (200hr MA).  – PP 103.90,  S1 103.55

GBP – Big rally – spurred by USD weakness and Governor Bailey pushing back on Negative Interest Rates. Breached 1.3600 after multiple attempts – rallied to 1.3690 –  PP 1.3585, R1 1.3668, R2 1.3715

AUD – Over 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7770 (R2) now. R1 0.7748  –                          NZD – Over 0.7200 yesterday to test 0.7240 (R3) now. r2 0.7215                             CAD – back to test 1.2700 (S2) today as Oil rises – S1 1.2725, S3 1.2664 from Friday       CHF – Trades back to 0.8850 (200hrMA) and under S3 (0.8865)- PP 0.8900 

BTC – Back to around $34,600. – PP today 34,500, r1 36,600, s1 32,800

GOLD – Recovers over 1850 (PP) – Trades at 1860 (R1) – R2 1875, PP 1840                    USOil – New 11-mth high $53.90 (R2) after surprise drawdown in private inventories (EIA data later). R3 $54.70, r1 53.55.

USA500 – Closed up 1.5 (+0.04%) 3800 – USA500 FUTS now at 3808. 48 days north of 20SMA (3740).

Today – EZ industrial production, US CPI, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bullard, Brainard, Harker, Clarida

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.23%) 5th day higher – Bounced from 200MA on open, testing 1.7625 now, key resistance 1.7650. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and north of 0 line from Monday open, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.023, Daily ATR 0.0125.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #408 on: January 18, 2021, 02:49:52 PM »
Date : 18th January 2021.

Events to Look Out for This Week.




US elections will dominate the markets in the week again, as the inauguration of Joe Biden will take place on Wednesday with security having been stepped up. From data perspective is all about inflation next week from UK, EU, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. However eye will be on central banks with BoC, BoJ and ECB rate decision in the spotlight.

Monday – 18 January 2021

Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q4 and reveal headline growth of 6.1% y/y and 3.2% q/q.

Tuesday – 19 January 2021

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 17:00) – The German HICP inflation for December is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.7% y/y. Initial expectations had been for a slight lift in the annual rate, but national data out of Germany already indicated that the number would remain stuck at a very low level. Germany’s temporary VAT cut and base effects from energy prices are largely to blame for the negative rate.

ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR, GMT 09:00)

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European January ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 45.5 compared to 54.4 last month.

Wednesday – 13 January 2021

The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President will dominate headlines around the world!

PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidance on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.

Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for December is anticipated higher at 0.5% y/y, after falling more than expected, to just 0.3% y/y in November, with the biggest downward contribution coming from food and non-alcohol beverages, along with clothing and footwear. The UK-wide Covid-19 lockdown in November suppressed price pressures. Inflation is likely to remain subdued over the next several months, but should pick up notably from spring, when base effects impact on year-on-year price comparisons. There is potential for pronounced reflation as 2021 progresses, assuming vaccine programs prove effective, which would facilitate a return towards societal and economic normalcy, and in turn trigger a possible consumer spending boom fuelled by ‘lockdown savings’. The Retail sales are seen at 1.1% y/y in December from 0.9% y/y last month.

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The final CPI headline and core are expected to show 0.3%m/m December gains, with core declining to 0.5% m/m.
Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation accelerated to a 1.0% y/y pace in November, however, it is expected to decline in December to 0.8% y/y below the Bank’s target of 2% until 2023.

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The BoC is expected to hold rates steady at 0.25% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”

Thursday – 21 January 2021

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady at -0.1% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The speculation is growing that the BoJ will scale back its ETF stock buying programme – given the strength in equities and the BoJ’s substantial ownership of this ETF sector.

Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45) – The ECB to add more stimulus at the moment seems unlikely unless current restrictions remain in place much longer than anticipated. Hence, ECB is expected to keep policy steady at January meeting. The central bank’s focus is on maintaining very favourable financing conditions for both governments and companies, against the background of a pandemic that not only has weighed heavily on the growth outlook, but also contributed a further fragmentation of economies and markets. With the advent of vaccination programs there clearly is no appetite to cut rates again. Not that the ECB rules out such a step — if the situation deteriorates again, or an overshooting currency undermines the inflation outlook, the ECB won’t shy away from using that instrument if necessary.

Friday – 22 January 2021

Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:0) – Final December PMI readings brought downward revisions. The manufacturing PMI was revised to 55.2 from 55.5, while the services PMI came in at 46.4, versus 47.3 in the preliminary report, although still up from 41.7 in the previous month. The composite PMI was revised down to 49.1 from 49.8, again still an improvement from the 44.3 reported for November, but no signalling ongoing contraction, rather than the stabilisation the flash reading suggested. Social distancing measures and restrictions continued to weigh on the services sector and while the outlook in December was brightened by the prospect of vaccination programs, it is pretty clear now that restrictions won’t go away any time soon and that despite vaccines it will still be a very difficult winter. That means that while the downturn in overall activity in Q4 was less severe than thought at some point, the outlook for the first quarter looks very difficult and as Market highlighted the risk of a technical recession is greater now.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #409 on: January 19, 2021, 03:10:32 PM »
Date : 19th January 2021.

Market Update – January 19 – USD & Yen Slide.



EURUSD, H1

The Dollar and Yen have come under pressure today after rallying yesterday. A bullish sentiment in global stock markets has boosted other currencies, particularly the dollar bloc and other cyclical units. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose over 1.5% and clocked a new record high, buoyed in the wake of strong GDP and production data out of China yesterday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fared less well, and was showing a modest 0.2% gain as of the late London morning session. US Index futures were up by over 0.5%. Commodities, in contrast, were lacklustre. Oil prices lifted moderately, rising above Monday’s highs, but remained off the 11-month highs that were pegged last week. Base metal prices were mixed.



The USDIndex dropped below yesterday’s low to a nadir at S3 and 90.36. The index had yesterday printed a one-month high at 90.95. The dollar’s recent correlation with US Treasury yields broke, with the currency declining despite a concurrent 2 bp lift in the 10-year T-note yield to levels back above 1.10%. After rising on every trading day, except one, since January 6th, the Dollar had perhaps been looking ripe for a correction. Of interest, the latest Economist Big Mac index, which is a measure of 56 currency valuations according to the theory of purchasing power parity, shows the Dollar to be the fourth most overvalued currency, behind the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. By this measure, the Euro is 9% undervalued relative to the Dollar, and the Pound 22% undervalued. This gives some insight into why the market has been so bearish of the Dollar in the beyond-Covid global reflation trade, which has the dominant macro investment thesis over the last couple of months.

Ahead today, Ex Fed chair Janet Yellen will testify before Congress for her nomination as Treasury Secretary, where she will reportedly call for the US to “act big” on stimulus. Regarding the Dollar, she is expected to argue for market-determined exchange rates. Given the Fed’s inflation tolerant, lower-for-longer rubric on interest rate policy, alongside prospects for sharp rises in the budget and trade deficits, US economic policy under the incoming Biden administration is sure to be accepting of, if not wanting, a weaker Dollar.



EURUSD – breached 1.2100 and trades north of R3 at 1.2144, Cable holds over 1.3600 having tested 1.3625 earlier, and USDJPY continues to rotate through 104.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #410 on: January 20, 2021, 05:23:40 PM »
Date : 20th January 2021.

Morgan Stanley – Still the best Equity Trader?



[Morgan Stanley is set to report its fourth-quarter 2020 earnings before the market open today. Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services. Hence similar to the previous three quarters of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic, along with the US presidential election and vaccination breakthroughs clearly impacted the Morgan Stanley report and weighed on markets sentiment especially as in the 4th quarter the second wave of pandemic looks to be even stronger than before. The virus spread created chaos in financial markets that impacted the value of loans, investments and trading assets, and significantly reduced interest income and investment banking fees.

However,  fiscal stimulus programs and ongoing monetary support are expected to have helped  client activity bounce back in H2 of 2020, leading to heightened volatility. Therefore, today we could see something similar to the JPMorgan report. Morgan Stanley’s equity and fixed income markets revenues are expected to have improved. Additional reasons that could support a positive reading today are the near-zero interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s bond purchase program, as these is likely to have aided Morgan Stanley’s debt underwriting fees, which account for more than 50% of their total underwriting fees. Also, global M&As spiked in the 2nd half of 2020 due to restructuring. Hence Morgan Stanley could benefit from advisory fees incomes.

Nevertheless, according to Forbes and Zacks, Morgan Stanley is expected to earn $1.29/share on $11.08 billion in revenue. This would represent year-over-year growth of 7.5%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $11.28 billion, up 3.88% from the year-ago period.



Technical Analysis

It has been an interesting year for US company shares. Morgan Stanley hit a yearly high of $91.31/share in 2020 while currently trading within the $75-77 territory. The share price is on course for the best performing quarter in Morgan Stanley’s history, since it is a breath away from the 161.8 Fibonacci extension from November’s rally. From the technical perspective, the stock’s outlook is currently bullish however some consolidation has been noticed since December 2020 on the overbought performance seen in the 2nd half of 2020. The price is positioned well above the 200 Day Moving Averages and 50 Day Moving Averages.

The stock is prone to big moves after reporting earnings and could easily gap up if the numbers are strong. Conversely, if the numbers disappoint, the stock could easily gap down.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #411 on: January 21, 2021, 03:52:52 PM »

Date : 21st January 2021.

USD Data – Claims Remain Elevated, Housing & Philly Fed beat.


EURUSD, H1

US initial jobless claims fell -26,000 to 900,000 in the week ended January 16. This follows the prior week’s sharply downwardly revised 142,000 surge to 926,000 (was 965,000) which was the highest level since late August. But the 4-week moving average rose to 848,000 versus the prior 824,500 (was 834,250). Initial jobless claims (NSA) tumbled -151,300 to 960,700 in the January 16 week after rising 192,300 (was 231,300). Continuing claims dropped -127,000 to 5.054 million in the January 9 week after bouncing 109,000 to 5.81 million (was 5.271 million). The initial claims number will get a little extra scrutiny as it coincides with the BLS employment survey week.

US housing starts climbed 5.8% to 1.669 mln in December, well above expectations, following the 3.1% jump to 1.578 mln (was 1.547 mln) in November. This is the fourth straight monthly increase and is the highest since late 2006. Building permits increased 4.5% to 1.709 mln last month after November’s 5.9% surge to 1.635 mln (was 1.639 mln). All of the strength in starts was in the single family arena, posting a 12.0% pop, while multifamily starts dropped -13.6% following respective increases of 1.4% (was 0.4%) and 9.1% (was 4.0%). And this is an 8th straight monthly gain (since May) for single family starts.

The Philly Fed manufacturing index rebounded 17.4 points to 26.5 in January, much stronger than expected, after dropping -11.6 points to 9.1 (was 11.1) in December. The index has been in expansion since June and was at 13.7 a year ago. Gains were broadbased. The employment index surged to 22.5 from 5.6 (was 8.5). The workweek edged up to 18.6 from 15.5 (was 18.0). New orders jumped to 30.0 from 1.9 (was 2.3). Prices paid nearly doubled to 45.4 versus 24.9 (was 27.1) and prices received increased to 36.6 from 16.1 (was 18.0). The 6-month activity index rose to 52.8 from 43.1 (was 39.2). But the future employment gauge dipped to 38.9 from 41.3 (was 41.0), and new orders were unchanged at 47.5 (December was revised from 41.5). Prices paid slid to 41.3 from 45.1 (was 46.6), with prices received at 33.9 from 34.3 (was 35.5).



The Dollar moved slightly higher after the mostly upbeat data, which saw initial jobless claims fall less than expected, but continuing claims down more than forecast. Housing starts beat expectations, while the Philly Fed index was stronger than consensus. USDJPY traded from near 103.45 to 103.55, while EURUSD initially dipped to near 1.2150 from 1.2165.



Equities have opened higher, all three of the major US indices at all-time highs, the USA100 leads the way to trade at 13,310.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
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HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #412 on: January 22, 2021, 11:39:49 AM »
Date : 23rd January 2021.

FX Update – January 22 – USD Holds gains & PMI’s.



GBPUSD, H1

The Dollar has firmed up on a safe haven bid with the reflation trade having come to a firm stop. The USDIndex lifted moderately to a 90.25 high after basing out at a nine-day low at 90.05. The US currency gained only marginally against the Euro and Yen, but racked up gains of around 0.4% to 0.5% against the Pound and dollar bloc currencies. EURUSD ebbed back from an eight-day high at 1.2178, before recovering to 1.2188 following Eurozone PMI data, while USDJPY lifted to a two-day high at 103.70.



Global equity indices corrected from record highs in the cases of the main US indices and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index. Base metals are also markedly lower. Lofty valuations and an increasing level of concern about the Covid situation have warranted increasing investor caution. Covid restrictions have been implemented across northern China, and the new highly transmittable variant of the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus — aka the British variant, where it was first detected — has shown up as far afield as Beijing and Australia. The EU looks set ban travel to the UK, while the UK has already imposed much tougher international travel restrictions. The rollout of the Covid vaccinations globally has also been proving to be bumpy.

Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies dropped sharply again, which will only add to their reputation for being too volatile for serious institutional investors to touch. Reports that the Biden administration has tighter regulations for cryptocurrencies on its ‘to do’ list have been driving cryptos lower. Bitcoin was showing an 11% loss on the day, as of the early London morning, at $30,860 — which is nearly 26% below the record high seen earlier in the month. The virtual coin earlier traded below $29,000 for the first time since January 1.



Eurozone Flash PMI readings declined as lockdowns were strengthened and/or extended. The last minute Brexit deal may have helped to prevent a worse number for the manufacturing sector at least, and the decline in the Eurozone manufacturing reading to 54.7 from 55.2 was actually less pronounced than feared with the number still pointing to a solid pace of expansion. Services meanwhile are clearly suffering. The Eurozone services PMI dropped back to 45.0 from 46.4, driven largely by a sharp deterioration in the French reading, which fell to 46.5 from 49.1. The German index held up better than feared and dipped only slightly – to 46.8 from 47.0. The overall composite for the Eurozone came in at 47.5, down from 49.1 at the end of last year and supporting expectations for a technical recession over the Q4 and Q1 period.



Across the Channel UK PMI data showed a woeful record for Services and came in much weaker than expected. The headline composite PMI plunged to 40.6 from 50.4 in December. The median forecast had been for a 45.5 reading. Pronounced weakness in the service sector drove the composite lower, with services bearing the brunt of the lockdown across the UK nations, which has been the most severe since last year’s ‘mother’ lockdown. The prelim services PMI headline dove to 38.8 from 49.4. The prelim manufacturing PMI fell to a headline reading of 52.9 from 57.5, which was near the median forecast for 53.0. Much of the manufacturing sector remains open, despite the lockdown. The drop in the composite reading, while sharp, is still less much less severe than was seen during early spring last year. There are hopes that the UK’s world-leading vaccination programme will start to see restrictions lifted from as early as mid February, by which time all the most vulnerable groups should have been vaccinated.

Cable trades down to test 1.3650, down from yesterday’s high at 1.3745 and today’s open at 1.3729.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
« Reply #413 on: Today at 01:35:18 PM »
Date : 25th January 2021.

Events to Look Out for This Week.




A gigantic week is coming with 2 of the FAANGs, Tesla and Microsoft, reporting their Q4 earnings, along with the FOMC conference in focus as it could provide key information on fiscal support talks. Focus will also be  on GDP data from the biggest economies in the world, including the US and Europe, but also on UK Job numbers that will show the impact of the original furlough deadline.

Monday – 25 January 2021

German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip slightly to 90.0 in January after the jump seen in December to 92.1.

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.

Tuesday – 26 January 2021

Average Earnings Index & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to slow down to 2.3% y/y in the three months to November. UK ILO unemployment is expected higher at 5.1% in the three months to November.

Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The US Consumer confidence is expected to slip to 88.0 from 88.6 in December, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. The confidence measures have shown divergent swings since mid-2020 that have a downward tilt into January, likely due to the surge in virus cases, more stringent lockdowns, and the bizarre political events of recent weeks. We should be seeing some lift from stimulus passage and vaccine distributions, however, which may be more evident in February.

Wednesday – 27 January 2021

Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian inflation data in Q4 is expected to decline at 1.5% q/q while headline remains in line with Q3 at 0.7% y/y.

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 3.0% in December with an 8.3% climb in transportation orders. A defense orders gain is pegged at 3.0%, following a 3.7% November bounce. Boeing orders jumped to 90 in December with the lifting of the 737 MAX grounding, from 27 in November and zero in the two months before that. Durable shipments should rise 1.0%, and inventories should rise 0.5%.

Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC is due to meet (Tuesday, Wednesday) but no changes are expected. The FOMC didn’t make any big changes in its policy stance at the December 16 meeting. However, it did tweak its statement to emphasize its uber-accommodative posture, which was underscored several times by Chair Powell in his press conference. The forecasts indicate that current rates will remain in place through 2023.

Thursday – 28 January 2021

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German prel. HICP inflation for January is anticipated to be released at -0.6% y/y from -0.7% y/y. Germany’s temporary VAT cut is partly to blame as are base effects from oil prices, but it is also clear that a lack of demand and the closure of the hospitality sector continue to keep a lid on headline inflation numbers.

Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The prelim. Gross Domestic Product should advance at 4.1% in Q4 and 3.2% in Q1, after 33.4% growth in Q3. We expect a Q4 moderation in consumption growth to 2.2% from 41.0% in Q3 as heightened coronavirus restrictions impacted spending, while government purchases contract at an estimated -5% rate, and nonresidential investment in structures fall at a -9% pace. We saw in Q3 a continued boom in housing activity and equipment spending.
Friday – 29 January 2021

Friday – 29 January 2021

Gross Domestic Product  (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Eurozone’s GDP contracted -5.0% last year, according to the first estimate for economic activity last year. That compared to a modest rise of 0.6% in 2019 and while it was somewhat better than median expectations, the numbers refer to unadjusted data. Adjusted for calendar effects, GDP was actually down -5.3%. There is no data for the last quarter yet, but it is pretty clear that after the recession in the first quarter and the rebound over the summer, virus developments weighed on growth again in the last quarter of 2020, although less than feared at one point.

Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.1% increase in headline rise for personal income in December is anticipated after a -1.1% drop in November, alongside a -0.7% drop in consumption after a -0.4% November decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


 

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