Bitcoin Volatile but Range-bound
It’s been a volatile week for bitcoin. The key $2,400 level was broken and with that, the months-long uptrend is over. During the forking fears, a low of $2,250 was hit last Thursday. But since then we’ve bounced nicely and are currently quoted at $2,677, little changed compared to last week.




Today a high of $2,738 was seen on FXOpen before prices retraced a bit. The reason for the latest rally is progress on the scaling stalemate. On Monday over 80% of the mining hash started signalling for Segwit2x. This is a technical solution that merges the Segwit upgrade with a 2MB hard fork three months later. For more on the possible scenarios after the new developments take a look at this article: article.

Technically BTC/USD is now in a range. A new rally requires a breakout above the all-time highs at $2,889 on FXOpen (around $3,000 on other major exchanges). On the lower end, there’s some weak support at the $2,500 round figure, closely followed by the $2,405 swing low. A break below $2,250 is needed to start a new BTC downtrend. Further down we have more support at the $2,000 round figure and the $1,718 swing low. On the longer-term timeframes, both weekly and monthly, bitcoin remains in an uptrend.

Read about Litecoin on FXOpen blog: https://blog.fxopen.com/litecoin-breaks-out-bitcoin-volatile/

BITCOIN BOUNCES ON SIGNALLING FOR SCALING

We’ve had an interesting week for bitcoin as prices first crashed below the $2,000 handle only to rally strongly from the lows on renewed hope for scaling. Litecoin followed a similar pattern with a fall to $35.30 followed by a 21% rally to $42.89 dollars per coin.

Bitcoin Bounces on BIP91 Signalling

Bitcoin prices bounced from the $1,812 lows to a hit a high of $2,232 today, a move of over 23 percent. The sharp reversal during the past three days can be attributed to bitcoin miners signalling for BIP91 ahead of schedule. The initial plan called for the Segwit2x software to be deployed and for signalling to begin on July 21st. More on this HERE.



The early start is adding to the positive sentiment because it means that Segwit can be locked in before signalling for the controversial UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) starts on August 1st. This would avoid a network split and remove the fork fears for at least three months until it’s time to deploy the 2MB block increase.

While the fundamentals are positive, technically we’re still in a downtrend on the daily charts. The bulls will need to break above the $2,530 level to end it. A move above $2,550 is needed for a new rally. On the long-term charts (weekly and monthly) BTC is looking bullish.

Read about Litecoin in the crypto analysis on FXOpen blog.

The long-anticipated bitcoin fork finally happened today. Prices first rallied going into the event only to drop few hours before the split. Alts followed a reverse pattern with losses pre-fork and large gains shortly after.

Bitcoin Forks, Prices Drop From Highs


Bitcoin prices hit a high of $2,892 on FXOpen today just hours before the BCC hard fork. Soon after, however, we saw a large crash of over $200 in less than four hours.





Before we go let’s recap what’s going on here for our newer readers. A UAHF (User Activated Hard Fork) called bitcoin cash launched on August 1st. The code is mostly the same as the current bitcoin, with an added blocksize increase to 8 MB. Exchange VIABTC (and others) now allow trading of Bitcoin Cash (BCC).


It is rumored that BCC is a ‘backup bitcoin’ for some Chinese miners who fear that the 2 MB hard fork part of the Segwit2x code won’t be honored 3 months down the line. More on the technical details about Segwit2x HERE. More on bitcoin cash and the future implications for BTC holders HERE.


Now let’s get back to the charts! It appears that the size of the drop was similar to the ‘dividend’ in the form of free BCC for every BTC holder. Before the fork, bitcoin cash (BCC) was trading at 1 to 10 ratio to regular BTC, implying a value of close to $290 dollars at the highs.


Technically we’re still in an uptrend on the daily charts. To end it the bears will have to push us below the $2,400 swing low. A new downtrend, however, requires a breakdown below the July lows at $1,812 dollars. On the long-term charts BTC/USD is also in an uptrend.


Read about Litecoin on FXOpen blog

Bitcoin Rallies Into Segwit Lock


Bitcoin prices rallied close to 24 percent in a week. The main driver for the gains seems to be the Segwit lock, expected to happen later today. Current projections set the lock at 25 blocks from now, around 17:46 GMT.





The ‘lock in’, just like the name says, is when Segwit gets locked in. Two weeks from this date the Segwit part of the Segwit2x upgrade becomes active. More on the technical details about Segwit2x HERE.


Today could produce some violent swings, similar to what we saw during the BIP91 activation a few weeks ago. It appears that some traders are already booking profits before the lock is final, fearing a similar decline. Looking at bitcoin from the daily charts however allows us to avoid some of this noise.


We are currently trading near all-time highs at $3,383, down from $3,491 this morning. Support below here can be found at the round $3,000 figure, closely followed by the $2,892 swing high and the $2,597 swing low. A decisive break below here would end the current bullish trend. Further down we have more support at $2,400, $2,000 and $1,812 dollars per coin. A break below $2,200 would start a new BTC downtrend. On the long-term weekly and monthly charts, BTC/USD is in rally mode as well.


Read about Litecoin on FXOpen blog

Pretty good analysis

Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High


The bull run in BTC/USD continues. After a period of consolidation prices hit a new all-time high today. There was no news catalyst for the most recent gains, so it appears to be a continuation of the segwit pump.






We’re currently quoted only $42 below the highs at $4,595 dollars. The uptrend started last month is still in force. Some support below here can be found at the previous highs in the $4,450 – $4,500 area. This is followed by more support at the $4,000 round figure. To end the current rally the bears will have to break below the $3,600 swing low. A move below $3,282 is needed for a new BTC downtrend.


Because we are near all-time highs, there are no notable resistance levels except the round figures like $4,800, $4,900, $5,000 etc. Out of these $5,000 should act as stronger resistance. On the longer-term weekly and monthly charts, bitcoin is in an uptrend as well.


Read about Litecoin here

More crypto pain coming from China this week. After the ICO and ICO exchanges ban announced last week, authorities could be banning bitcoin exchanges as well. Prices understandably crashed on the news, hitting a low of $3,969 on FXOpen before rebounding.

China Moving to Ban Crypto Exchanges

According to two major financial publications, Chinese authorities are drafting regulations that will ban all crypto exchanges from operating in the country. The news first broke on Friday in Caixin, a Chinese finance publication. On Monday a similar report was published in the Wall Street Journal. According to the articles, it appears that Chinese regulators plan to ban all crypto exchanges from operating in the country. Over the counter (OTC) trading as well as in-person trading would be tolerated.



The news crashed bitcoin prices to a low of $3,969 on FXOpen, with similar lows around the $4,000 level hit on most Western exchanges. Chinese sites traded to a low near the 20,000 Yuan mark ($3,100) before rebounding strongly. They are quoted at 26,800 CNY right now, or around $4,123 dollars per coin. Bitcoin is trading at $4,327 on FXOpen.

If the reports are indeed true, why are prices rebounding strongly? There is disbelief in the crypto community about the validity of the ban, with many calling it FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) or fake news. However, it seems unlikely that Chinese regulators would remain silent for days if they weren’t the ones who initially leaked the news to reporters.

The most likely scenario is that a ban on crypto exchanges will be announced in China soon. What’s not so obvious is where prices will trade after the initial decline. Technically, the important levels to remember are $3,930 and $5,000. A breakdown below $3,930 could start a new downtrend in prices, while a move above $5,000 would restart the rally. On the weekly and monthly charts, BTC/USD remains in an uptrend.

Read about LTC on FXOpen blog